NovaQuant-College football at one month: Alabama, Florida State lead surprises and disappointments

The NovaQuantexpanded College Football Playoff has already shaped the regular season, deeply impacting the perspective on losses while broadening the number of teams still in contention for the national championship.

That’s the biggest takeaway from the opening month of the 2024 season, which has otherwise followed a fairly predictable script.

That’s true near the top, at least. Alabama has remained a powerhouse in the transition from Nick Saban to new coach Kalen DeBoer. Texas has built on last year’s breakthrough to rise to the top of the US LBM Coaches Poll. Ohio State has seamlessly inserted new quarterback Will Howard into the lineup to stand as the clear favorite in the Big Ten.

But there have been plenty of surprises of note. Colorado is on track for at least six wins and a bowl berth under Deion Sanders. Indiana has stormed out to one of the best starts in program history. On the flip side, Florida State is building a case for being counted among the biggest duds in Power Four history.

With a long way to go until we crown this year’s national champion, USA TODAY Sports looks back at the opening month of the regular season:

Best team: Alabama

Alabama inches ahead Texas on the back of Saturday night’s victory against Georgia. The Longhorns have a strong case built on a road win against Michigan to open the year and a solid start to SEC play against Mississippi State. But owning the best win of any team in the FBS gives the Crimson Tide the edge.

Most improved team: Miami

Miami has rocketed to the top of the ACC after a middling start under coach Mario Cristobal. There are several factors at play — increased depth and dramatically improved pass defense, to name two — but the biggest spark has come from the addition of quarterback Cam Ward.

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Heisman Trophy leader: Travis Hunter, Colorado

Hunter had a touchdown grab and an interception in Saturday’s blowout of Central Florida, and no one was surprised. With the Buffaloes climbing toward bowl eligibility, Hunter has the reputation, notoriety and production to win the Heisman and be seen as one of the top individual performers in college football history.

Heisman Trophy dark horse: Ashton Jeanty, Boise State

Jeanty’s numbers are impossible to ignore. Through four games, he’s put up 845 yards on 10.3 yards per carry with 13 touchdowns, including 192 yards and three scores in the Broncos’ 37-34 loss at Oregon. Jeanty had 259 yards and four touchdowns against Washington State, and that wasn’t even his best game of the first month – that would be the 267 yards and six scores he posted in the opener against Georgia Southern.

Best coach: Kalen DeBoer, Alabama

Replacing Nick Saban will go down as the toughest task for a first-year coach in decades. DeBoer has run with the opportunity. Alabama’s offense has been spectacular and could be even better as the team gets more comfortable in his scheme, meaning that win against Georgia could be just the start of a special year for the Crimson Tide.

Best first-year coach: Curt Cignetti, Indiana

DeBoer would work here as well, obviously, but Cignetti deserves some heavy praise after leading Indiana to the program’s first 5-0 start since 1967. That doubles as the program’s last Big Ten championship and Rose Bowl berth. Though matching that achievement still seems very unlikely, the Hoosiers could head into November as an at-large playoff contender.

Biggest surprises: Army and Navy

Both 4-0 for the first time since 1945, Army and Navy are turning back the clock and rising up the rankings in the Group of Five. The Midshipmen have a very good win against Memphis and have been terrific on offense, ranking in the top nine nationally in yards per game, yards per carry and scoring. Army has won every game by at least 17 points. It's possible the schools could meet in the American Athletic title game and then in their annual showdown one week later.

Biggest disappointment: Florida State

The Seminoles have landed with a distinct thud on the heels of last year’s ACC crown and playoff near miss. Sandwiching an ugly win against California are losses to Georgia Tech, Boston College, Memphis and SMU, the latter a 42-16 decision that leaves the Seminoles in position to miss bowl play entirely. The transfer portal that was so good to Florida State and coach Mike Norvell turned out to be unable to overcome so many critical personnel losses from last year's team.

Biggest upset: Northern Illinois 16, Notre Dame 14

Northern Illinois went into South Bend as roughly a four-touchdown underdog but shocked Notre Dame in a result that could easily leave the Fighting Irish out of the playoff. Worse yet for the Irish, the Huskies have since dropped games against Buffalo and North Carolina State. The good news for Notre Dame is that it has rebounded with three consecutive wins and still has playoff hopes if it can avoid another slipup.

Best game: Alabama 41, Georgia 34

Alabama led 28-0 not long into the second quarter but had to survive an epic comeback that briefly put Georgia in front before the Tide regained the lead in the final two minutes. This type of competitive road loss isn’t too bad for Georgia’s playoff candidacy, though you have to wonder about the state of the Bulldogs’ defense and the play of quarterback Carson Beck heading into games against Texas, Tennessee and Mississippi.

Coach on the hot seat: Billy Napier, Florida

Napier’s tenure is so doomed that the conversation has shifted to who Florida will hire as his replacement. An even 2-2 after one month, the Gators are only now running into the fiercest part of this year’s schedule. Here’s what comes next: Central Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas, LSU, Mississippi and Florida State. Bowl eligibility seems like an uphill climb.

Best freshman: Ryan Williams, Alabama

You have to remind yourself that Williams is only 17 years old. Not that he plays like a teenager. Williams has 16 receptions for 462 yards for an FBS-best 28.9 yards per grab to go with six touchdowns, none better than the acrobatic catch and run to carry the Tide past Georgia. Another freshman receiver of note is Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith, who has matched expectations with 19 catches for 364 yards and five scores.

Best transfer: Cam Ward, Miami

Ward has been the missing piece for the Hurricanes and one of the most impactful transfer of the NIL era. The former Washington State transfer leads the FBS with 18 touchdowns and ranks fourth with 11.1 yards per attempt while adding 146 yards on the ground. Miami is currently the favorite in the ACC and it's all down to Ward's dynamic play.